Analysis of Bank of Canada Drops in Overnight Lending Rate

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January 24, 2024 Bank of Canada Announcement

As was widely anticipated by markets, the Bank of Canada held its overnight target rate at 5.00%, where it has been since July 2023.

Aside from the expected rate hold, markets focused on several dovish signals from the central bank, including the absence of its previously used line that it remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.

And during a press conference following the announcement, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem confirmed that there was a clear consensus to maintain our policy at 5%, and that the deliberations shifted from whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to how long to maintain the current restrictive stance.

While the Bank is not yet ready to signal a change in policy, markets are taking the lead.  Odds are pointing to the first rate cut happening in April/June. We echo this sentiment.

He points to a flatlining of the economy since the summer and a return of the job market back to balance. Even the B of C quantitative tightening policy looks to have potentially gone too far with market overnight rates continuing to drift from the Bank’s target rate, he added.

Bond markets continue to price in 33% odds of a quarter-point rate cut as early as March, and 55% odds of a 50-bps rate cut by June.  The B of C  still remains concerned about inflation expectations.  However, the Bank made clear that it remains concerned about the inflation outlook and the persistence of underlying inflation.   Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation,  it said. In its latest inflation outlook, the Bank maintains that headline inflation won’t return to its desired 2% target until 2025.  It said that due to strong wage growth of 4% to 5%, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines.

Bank of Canada acknowledges problematic shelter costs. 

For the first time, the Bank also referenced the impact of high shelter costs, which it noted are the biggest contributors to above-target inflation.

Despite consumers cutting back on spending over the past year, which would typically lead to a more rapid deceleration in inflation, Orlando noted that structural imbalances in the real estate sector are keeping the B of C  preferred inflation gauges elevated.

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